Home / Methodology / Model track record
Model track record: every call, in public
Background only. FragOdds is a best-price board and makes no picks. We keep logging the rating model's pre-match numbers so the record stays honest.
Before each match starts, we log the model's fair probability along with the Kalshi and Polymarket prices at that moment. A row locks at the scheduled start and can never be edited. After the match, we grade it against the official result. Nothing is deleted, and losses stay up.
176
predictions logged
62
graded
114
awaiting start or result
0
void (cancelled / no result)
By model version
Each logged prediction is stamped with the model version that made it. A new version gets its own rows, and an old version's rows are never re-scored or edited. Current model: v2.0-20261019T1438.
| Version | Logged | Graded | Model Brier | Market Brier (same matches) | Model Brier (same matches) | Flagged gaps, won, P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2.0-20261019T1438 | 95 | 19 | 0.261 | 0.261 (n=19) | 0.261 | – |
| v1.0 | 81 | 43 | 0.217 | 0.212 (n=43) | 0.217 | 17, 5, -1.92 |
Model vs. market (all versions combined)
| Matches | Favourite won | Brier (lower is better) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62 | 59.7% | 0.2303 |
| Market (pre-start mid, same matches with a price) | 62 | 64.5% | 0.2271 |
| Model on those same 62 | 62 | 59.7% | 0.2303 |
Flagged model-vs-market gaps (hypothetical, experimental)
Gaps stay labelled experimental on the site until 50 picks are graded. 19 so far.
17 flagged, 5 won. Buying one $1 contract at the logged ask each time would be -1.92 units on 6.92 staked (ROI -27.7%), before fees. Paper results only, no real money.
Prediction log
| Start (ET) | Game | Match | Version | Model | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap flag | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | OldBoys vs Fire Flux Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | OldBoys 45.6% | 46¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | OldBoys vs Fire Flux Esports | v1.0 | OldBoys 42.9% | 38.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | MIBR vs Eternal Fire | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MIBR 65.6% | 71.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | MIBR vs Eternal Fire | v1.0 | MIBR 64.3% | 71¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Astralis vs fnatic | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Astralis 63.3% | 61.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Astralis vs fnatic | v1.0 | Astralis 62.4% | 72¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 9:30 AM ET | CS2 | Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Inner Circle… 42.4% | 30.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 9:30 AM ET | CS2 | Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis | v1.0 | Inner Circle… 48% | 30¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | magic vs BIG | v2.0-20261019T1438 | magic 45.8% | 66¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 27, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | magic vs BIG | v1.0 | magic 52.7% | 69¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Mon Oct 26, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | DNK vs LPH Gaming | v2.0-20261019T1438 | DNK 35% | 24¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Mon Oct 26, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | DNK vs LPH Gaming | v1.0 | DNK 31.9% | 24¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | FURIA vs DENDELE CS | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FURIA 82.1% | 79¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | G2 vs Natus Vincere | v2.0-20261019T1438 | G2 41.3% | 42.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | VAL | FUT Esports vs Fire Flux Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FUT Esports 38.1% | 54.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | VAL | GIANTX vs BBL Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | GIANTX 21.4% | 40¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | FURIA vs DENDELE CS | v1.0 | FURIA 81.6% | 80.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | G2 vs Natus Vincere | v1.0 | G2 54.2% | 43¢ | – | G2 +9.2pp @ 45¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | VAL | FUT Esports vs Fire Flux Esports | v1.0 | FUT Esports 42.1% | 55¢ | – | Fire Flux Esp… +9.9pp @ 48¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | VAL | GIANTX vs BBL Esports | v1.0 | GIANTX 26.3% | 39.5¢ | – | BBL Esports +6.7pp @ 67¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Legacy vs Nemiga | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Legacy 72.4% | 69.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Vitality vs 9z | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Vitality 87.1% | 84¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Legacy vs Nemiga | v1.0 | Legacy 45.3% | 70.5¢ | – | Nemiga +23.7pp @ 31¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Vitality vs 9z | v1.0 | Vitality 84% | 84¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 6:00 AM ET | CS2 | MOUZ vs Liquid | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MOUZ 85.1% | 82¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 6:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit vs BetBoom Team | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Spirit 80.6% | 77.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 6:00 AM ET | CS2 | MOUZ vs Liquid | v1.0 | MOUZ 79.5% | 80¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 6:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit vs BetBoom Team | v1.0 | Spirit 68.1% | 77¢ | – | BetBoom Team +7.9pp @ 24¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM ET | CS2 | Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Aurora Gaming 79.6% | 76.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM ET | CS2 | FUT Esports vs TYLOO | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FUT Esports 81.7% | 78.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM ET | CS2 | Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz | v1.0 | Aurora Gaming 74.7% | 73.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Sat Oct 24, 3:00 AM ET | CS2 | FUT Esports vs TYLOO | v1.0 | FUT Esports 78.5% | 80¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET | VAL | Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Team Liquid B… 31.3% | 62.5¢ | 62¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET | VAL | Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC | v1.0 | Team Liquid B… 29.8% | 62.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 5:00 PM ET | VAL | SK Nebula vs Nova Esports GC | v2.0-20261019T1438 | SK Nebula 48.2% | 83.5¢ | 81¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 5:00 PM ET | VAL | SK Nebula vs Nova Esports GC | v1.0 | SK Nebula 52.5% | 83¢ | 80¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Turma do Pagode vs Imperial | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Turma do Pago… 24.4% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 9:45 AM ET | CS2 | Quintessence vs Ryvex | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Quintessence 79% | – | 55¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | ENCE Prospects vs TheChampionGG | v2.0-20261019T1438 | ENCE Prospects 43.3% | 26.5¢ | 27¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Thu Oct 22, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | ENCE Prospects vs TheChampionGG | v1.0 | ENCE Prospects 35.9% | 33.5¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Galorys vs Fluxo W7M | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Galorys 52.7% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | largadosypelados vs paiN | v2.0-20261019T1438 | largadosypela… 45.4% | – | 46.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | 33 vs Butterfly | v2.0-20261019T1438 | 33 58.5% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Butterfly vs BET-M 33 | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Butterfly 42.2% | 50¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit Academy vs Lavked | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Spirit Academy 66% | – | 59.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Galorys vs Fluxo W7M | v1.0 | Galorys 46.1% | – | 45¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | largadosypelados vs paiN | v1.0 | largadosypela… 44.4% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Dark Moon vs GenOne | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Dark Moon 22.1% | – | 49¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Four Magic vs mellren | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Four Magic 46.2% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | KUUSAMO.gg vs LPH Gaming | v2.0-20261019T1438 | KUUSAMO.gg 38% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | los kogutos vs Sokerorg | v2.0-20261019T1438 | los kogutos 67.7% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | maybe vs Noir Verse | v2.0-20261019T1438 | maybe 39.9% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Saint Sinners vs MORROW | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Saint Sinners 65.2% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | KAMUI vs Vexar | v2.0-20261019T1438 | KAMUI 53.3% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit Academy Green vs WBT Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Spirit Academ… 51.1% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Phantom Academy vs Bebop | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Phantom Acade… 56.6% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Just Players vs Fire Flux Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Just Players 40.4% | 44.5¢ | 44¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | HAVU vs Inner Circle Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | HAVU 45.2% | – | 62¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Wed Oct 21, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | Sokerorg vs BakS eSports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Sokerorg 20.9% | – | 50.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | A Great Chaos vs Inner Circle Prospect | v2.0-20261019T1438 | A Great Chaos 38.2% | 50¢ | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | LPH Gaming vs Phantom Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | LPH Gaming 47.6% | 48¢ | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | NEW VISION vs Donstu Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | NEW VISION 46.8% | 47.5¢ | 49.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | OLDBOYS- vs Fire Flux Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | OLDBOYS- 51.8% | 51.5¢ | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | OldBoys vs Hermine Esports Club | v2.0-20261019T1438 | OldBoys 61.2% | 50¢ | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | Revise vs Privateer Gaming | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Revise 52.5% | 60¢ | – | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | fnatic vs PARIVISION | v2.0-20261019T1438 | fnatic 32% | 34.5¢ | 34.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 1:30 PM ET | CS2 | Nice Try vs aimclub | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Nice Try 56.8% | 56¢ | 54.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 1:30 PM ET | CS2 | Nice Try vs aimclub | v1.0 | Nice Try 52.6% | 58.5¢ | 59¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Damajuana vs your end | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Damajuana 35% | 37¢ | 47¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Damajuana vs your end | v1.0 | Damajuana 31.8% | 49.5¢ | 49.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | FOKUS vs ex-Zero Tenacity | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FOKUS 65% | 63¢ | 62¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | TheMongolz vs BIG | v2.0-20261019T1438 | TheMongolz 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 51.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | FOKUS vs ex-Zero Tenacity | v1.0 | FOKUS 58% | 60¢ | 60.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit Academy vs Black Phoenix | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Spirit Academy 33.7% | – | 26¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Betclic Apogee Esports vs Team Nemesis | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Betclic Apoge… 32.1% | 34¢ | 34.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | JiJieHao vs Iberian Soul | v2.0-20261019T1438 | JiJieHao 51.6% | 51.5¢ | 53¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Sinners vs SAW | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Sinners 63.3% | 61.5¢ | 63¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | BakS eSports vs mellren | v2.0-20261019T1438 | BakS eSports 58% | 34¢ | 49¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Heroic vs HyperSpirit | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Heroic 93% | 90.5¢ | 90.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Luminosity vs ASTRAL | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Luminosity 50.3% | 50.5¢ | 72¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit Academy vs Black Phoenix | v1.0 | Spirit Academy 32.8% | – | 62.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 8:00 AM ET | CS2 | Sangal vs Aurora Young Blood | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Sangal 87.2% | 84¢ | 85.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 8:00 AM ET | CS2 | Liquid vs magic | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Liquid 56.3% | 55.5¢ | 60.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 8:00 AM ET | CS2 | Sangal vs Aurora Young Blood | v1.0 | Sangal 77.8% | 85.5¢ | 75¢ | Aurora Young… +5.2pp @ 17¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | BakS eSports vs ILLYRIANS | v2.0-20261019T1438 | BakS eSports 56.4% | 55.5¢ | 54.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | MORROW vs maybe | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MORROW 55.7% | 50¢ | 49.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Revise vs Privateer Gaming | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Revise 53.8% | 64.5¢ | 55.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | BBL vs BC.Game Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | BBL 37.9% | 39.5¢ | 41¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Eternal Fire vs Infinite | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Eternal Fire 77.4% | 74.5¢ | 73.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | ex-Zero Tenacity vs FORZE Reload | v2.0-20261019T1438 | ex-Zero Tenac… 41.4% | 42.5¢ | 40¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | FaZe vs BASEMENT BOYS | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FaZe 49.9% | 50.5¢ | 57¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | ILLYRIANS vs BakS eSports | v1.0 | ILLYRIANS 47.6% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | maybe vs MORROW | v1.0 | maybe 47.6% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Privateer Gaming vs Revise | v1.0 | Privateer Gam… 55.3% | – | 50¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 6:30 AM ET | CS2 | Gatorian vs UNiTY esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Gatorian 6% | 8.5¢ | 8.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 6:30 AM ET | CS2 | Gatorian vs UNiTY esports | v1.0 | Gatorian 11.7% | 21.5¢ | 21.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | ex-RUSTEC vs Metizport | v2.0-20261019T1438 | ex-RUSTEC 49% | 49¢ | 49¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | Vitalem Aerem vs NEXVOID | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Vitalem Aerem 24.8% | – | 25.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | Alliance vs PRIVATE | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Alliance 58.6% | 57.5¢ | 58.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | ex-RUSTEC vs Metizport | v1.0 | ex-RUSTEC 42.5% | 56¢ | 51¢ | Metizport +10.4pp @ 47¢ (Polymarket) | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | Vitalem Aerem vs NEXVOID | v1.0 | Vitalem Aerem 19.9% | – | 29¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | Copenhagen Wolves vs EAC Extra | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Copenhagen Wo… 73.3% | 70.5¢ | 71¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | GenOne vs Bushido Wildcats | v2.0-20261019T1438 | GenOne 65.7% | 64¢ | 63.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | FORZE Reload vs Azuolas | v2.0-20261019T1438 | FORZE Reload 90.7% | 68.5¢ | 71.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | Copenhagen Wolves vs EAC Extra | v1.0 | Copenhagen Wo… 64.6% | 49¢ | 52¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 3:00 AM ET | CS2 | NEXORA vs TrafficPills Esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | NEXORA 23.8% | – | 27¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET | CS2 | Alter Ego vs Rare Atom | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Alter Ego 45.8% | 46.5¢ | 44.5¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Tue Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET | CS2 | Alter Ego vs Rare Atom | v1.0 | Alter Ego 65.3% | 56¢ | 56¢ | – | open (updates until start) |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 PM ET | CS2 | Lynn Vision vs Morningstar | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Lynn Vision 96.9% | 95¢ | 94.5¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 PM ET | CS2 | Lynn Vision vs Morningstar | v1.0 | Lynn Vision 70.2% | 77.5¢ | 77¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET | CS2 | Grêmio Esports vs DFX Peek | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Grêmio Esports 54.1% | 67.5¢ | 62.5¢ | – | DFX Peek won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET | CS2 | MASQ vs struggletony | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MASQ 30.5% | 33¢ | 33.5¢ | – | struggletony won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET | CS2 | MASQ vs struggletony | v1.0 | MASQ 52% | 37.5¢ | 37¢ | – | struggletony won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET | CS2 | Grêmio Esports vs DFX Peek | v1.0 | Grêmio Esports 55.4% | 49.5¢ | 49¢ | – | DFX Peek won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | Linx Legacy Esport vs EAC Extra | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Linx Legacy E… 44.7% | 45.5¢ | 46¢ | – | EAC Extra won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | MEIA NOITE vs BESTIA Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MEIA NOITE 53.4% | 53¢ | 52.5¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs paiN Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | QUINTESSÊNCIA 57.4% | 56.5¢ | 57.5¢ | – | QUINTESSÊNCIA won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | XI Esport vs struggletony | v2.0-20261019T1438 | XI Esport 49.9% | 50¢ | 49¢ | – | XI Esport won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | Linx Legacy Esport vs EAC Extra | v1.0 | Linx Legacy E… 53.6% | 55¢ | 54¢ | – | EAC Extra won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | XI Esport vs struggletony | v1.0 | XI Esport 59.9% | 39.5¢ | 38.5¢ | XI Esport +17.9pp @ 42¢ (Kalshi) | XI Esport won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | MEIA NOITE vs BESTIA Academy | v1.0 | MEIA NOITE 55.2% | 62.5¢ | 62.5¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM ET | CS2 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs paiN Academy | v1.0 | QUINTESSÊNCIA 61.7% | 54.5¢ | 56¢ | – | QUINTESSÊNCIA won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | LPH Gaming vs OldBoys | v2.0-20261019T1438 | LPH Gaming 33.8% | 36¢ | 34.5¢ | – | OldBoys won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:30 PM ET | CS2 | LPH Gaming vs OldBoys | v1.0 | LPH Gaming 42.6% | 41¢ | 41.5¢ | – | OldBoys won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | Linx Legacy Esport vs MASONIC | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Linx Legacy E… 28.6% | 31.5¢ | 32¢ | – | Linx Legacy E… won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | PARIVISION vs magic | v2.0-20261019T1438 | PARIVISION 60% | 58.5¢ | 57.5¢ | – | PARIVISION won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | PENSIONERS vs MTX | v2.0-20261019T1438 | PENSIONERS 50.8% | 50.5¢ | 52¢ | – | MTX won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | Linx Legacy Esport vs MASONIC | v1.0 | Linx Legacy E… 58.7% | 39¢ | 39¢ | – | Linx Legacy E… won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | PARIVISION vs magic | v1.0 | PARIVISION 56.5% | 58.5¢ | 58.5¢ | – | PARIVISION won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM ET | CS2 | PENSIONERS vs MTX | v1.0 | PENSIONERS 36.2% | 46¢ | 45.5¢ | – | MTX won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:30 PM ET | CS2 | 9INE vs UNiTY esports | v2.0-20261019T1438 | 9INE 51% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ | – | UNiTY esports won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:30 PM ET | CS2 | 9INE vs UNiTY esports | v1.0 | 9INE 25.9% | 50.5¢ | 49¢ | UNiTY esports +24.1pp @ 50¢ (Polymarket) | UNiTY esports won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | Phantom Academy vs Honvéd | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Phantom Acade… 66.3% | 62¢ | 69¢ | – | Honvéd won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | STATE vs MASONIC | v2.0-20261019T1438 | STATE 69.9% | 67.5¢ | 74¢ | – | STATE won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | Sokerorg vs The Last Resort | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Sokerorg 64% | – | 62¢ | – | The Last Reso… won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | Phantom Academy vs Honvéd | v1.0 | Phantom Acade… 65.9% | 54¢ | 46¢ | Phantom Acade… +13.9pp @ 52¢ (Kalshi) | Honvéd won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM ET | CS2 | STATE vs MASONIC | v1.0 | STATE 60.9% | 65¢ | 64.5¢ | – | STATE won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:45 PM ET | CS2 | ASTRAL vs Leo Team | v2.0-20261019T1438 | ASTRAL 47.1% | 51¢ | – | – | ASTRAL won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:45 PM ET | CS2 | Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Sashi Esport 66.1% | 63¢ | – | – | HyperSpirit won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Honvéd vs Vitality Academy | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Honvéd 67% | 64.5¢ | 66¢ | – | Honvéd won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | MASQ vs XI Esport | v2.0-20261019T1438 | MASQ 36.8% | 38.5¢ | 39¢ | – | XI Esport won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | Honvéd vs Vitality Academy | v1.0 | Honvéd 36.8% | 58¢ | 59.5¢ | Vitality Acad… +20.2pp @ 43¢ (Kalshi) | Honvéd won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 12:00 PM ET | CS2 | MASQ vs XI Esport | v1.0 | MASQ 42% | 39¢ | 39¢ | – | XI Esport won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | Brute vs Phantom | v2.0-20261019T1438 | Brute 36.6% | 38.5¢ | 40¢ | – | Brute won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | fnatic vs Liquid | v2.0-20261019T1438 | fnatic 41.3% | 42.5¢ | 43.5¢ | – | fnatic won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | Brute vs Phantom | v1.0 | Brute 44.2% | 38.5¢ | 40¢ | Brute +5.2pp @ 39¢ (Polymarket) | Brute won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 11:00 AM ET | CS2 | fnatic vs Liquid | v1.0 | fnatic 48.6% | 43.5¢ | 44¢ | – | fnatic won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Betclic Apogee Esports vs BBL | v1.0 | Betclic Apoge… 45.1% | 43.5¢ | 43.5¢ | – | BBL won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | ex-Zero Tenacity vs Bushido Wildcats | v1.0 | ex-Zero Tenac… 75.8% | 69.5¢ | 69.5¢ | ex-Zero Tenac… +5.8pp @ 70¢ (Polymarket) | ex-Zero Tenac… won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | G2 Ares vs mellren | v1.0 | G2 Ares 34.4% | 35.5¢ | 35¢ | – | G2 Ares won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Lilmix vs Saint Sinners | v1.0 | Lilmix 22% | 25.5¢ | 24.5¢ | – | Saint Sinners won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 10:00 AM ET | CS2 | Team Nemesis vs Nuclear TigeRES | v1.0 | Team Nemesis 52.5% | 57.5¢ | 58.5¢ | – | Team Nemesis won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 9:45 AM ET | CS2 | Phantom Academy vs Ryvex | v1.0 | Phantom Acade… 65.2% | 85.5¢ | – | Ryvex +19.8pp @ 15¢ (Polymarket) | Ryvex won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 9:45 AM ET | CS2 | Ryvex vs los kogutos | v1.0 | Ryvex 33.5% | – | 43.5¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 9:45 AM ET | CS2 | aimclub vs Insiders Esport | v1.0 | aimclub 76.6% | 78¢ | 83¢ | – | aimclub won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 9:45 AM ET | CS2 | Drama eSports vs Nexus | v1.0 | Drama eSports 45.5% | 38.5¢ | 59¢ | – | Nexus won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:15 AM ET | CS2 | BASEMENT BOYS vs Infinite | v1.0 | BASEMENT BOYS 54.3% | 47.5¢ | 47¢ | BASEMENT BOYS +6.3pp @ 48¢ (Polymarket) | Infinite won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:15 AM ET | CS2 | BC.Game Esports vs WBT | v1.0 | BC.Game Espor… 60.3% | 75.5¢ | 84.5¢ | WBT +14.7pp @ 25¢ (Polymarket) | BC.Game Espor… won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:15 AM ET | CS2 | Iberian Soul vs Sashi Esport | v1.0 | Iberian Soul 59.3% | 50¢ | – | – | Iberian Soul won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:00 AM ET | CS2 | BIG vs PRIVATE | v1.0 | BIG 59.3% | 66.5¢ | 66.5¢ | – | BIG won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 8:00 AM ET | CS2 | GenOne vs Omega | v1.0 | GenOne 63.8% | 59.5¢ | 58¢ | – | GenOne won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | BakS eSports vs Black Phoenix | v1.0 | BakS eSports 32.2% | – | 67¢ | – | Black Phoenix won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Bebop vs Honvéd | v1.0 | Bebop 58.5% | 54¢ | 54¢ | – | Bebop won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Bushido Wildcats vs Saint Sinners | v1.0 | Bushido Wildc… 40.8% | 32¢ | 45.5¢ | – | Saint Sinners won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 7:00 AM ET | CS2 | Noir Verse vs Revise | v1.0 | Noir Verse 59% | – | 50¢ | – | locked, awaiting result |
| Mon Oct 19, 6:45 AM ET | CS2 | ASTRAL vs Leo Team | v1.0 | ASTRAL 46.8% | 48¢ | 47.5¢ | – | ASTRAL won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 6:45 AM ET | CS2 | Iberian Soul vs HyperSpirit | v1.0 | Iberian Soul 67.3% | 73.5¢ | 74¢ | HyperSpirit +5.7pp @ 27¢ (Polymarket) | Iberian Soul won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 6:45 AM ET | CS2 | Sashi Esport vs MOUZ NXT | v1.0 | Sashi Esport 59.1% | 61.5¢ | 63¢ | – | Sashi Esport won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | aimclub vs BASEMENT BOYS | v1.0 | aimclub 49.1% | 42.5¢ | 41¢ | aimclub +6.1pp @ 43¢ (Polymarket) | BASEMENT BOYS won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | Alliance vs TheMongolz | v1.0 | Alliance 44.2% | 37.5¢ | 35.5¢ | Alliance +8.2pp @ 36¢ (Kalshi) | TheMongolz won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | BC.Game Esports vs Drama eSports | v1.0 | BC.Game Espor… 60.7% | 83.5¢ | 84¢ | Drama eSports +22.3pp @ 17¢ (Polymarket) | BC.Game Espor… won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | Spirit Academy vs Betclic Apogee Esports | v1.0 | Spirit Academy 49.5% | 27¢ | 26.5¢ | Spirit Academy +21.5pp @ 28¢ (Polymarket) | Betclic Apoge… won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 5:00 AM ET | CS2 | WBT vs Nexus | v1.0 | WBT 44.8% | 54¢ | 55¢ | Nexus +8.2pp @ 47¢ (Polymarket) | WBT won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | Copenhagen Wolves vs Prestige | v1.0 | Copenhagen Wo… 68.4% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | Copenhagen Wo… +15.4pp @ 53¢ (Polymarket) | Prestige won ✗ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | GenOne vs FORZE Reload | v1.0 | GenOne 31.4% | 30.5¢ | 32.5¢ | – | FORZE Reload won ✓ |
| Mon Oct 19, 4:00 AM ET | CS2 | WRAITH PCIFIC vs ILLYRIANS | v1.0 | WRAITH PCIFIC 62.4% | 56¢ | 54.5¢ | WRAITH PCIFIC +5.4pp @ 57¢ (Polymarket) | ILLYRIANS won ✗ |
Model and market numbers are for the team listed first. "Open" rows can still update until the match starts. After that they're locked.
Historical backtest vs. the market (separate from the live record)
The v2 model was chosen with an out-of-sample backtest against the last Polymarket price before each historical match (run Mon Oct 19, 10:38 AM ET). Coin-flip reference: Brier 0.25, log loss 0.693.
Valorant
| Out-of-sample test (227 matches, Aug 3, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026) | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Market (last Polymarket price before start) | 0.2269 | 0.6434 |
| Elo v1 (old model) | 0.2567 | 0.7140 |
| Elo v2 (tuned, MOV, decay, shrink), no market input | 0.2594 | 0.7210 |
| v2 blend (market + Elo, fit on earlier data) | 0.2302 | 0.6513 |
| Simulated $1 contracts on flagged gaps (test window, buying at price + 2¢) | Bets | Won | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1_rule (elo_v1 vs price, 5pp) | 128 | 43 | -3.86 | -8.2% |
| elo_v2 raw vs price, 3pp | 142 | 49 | -4.78 | -8.9% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 2pp) | 75 | 36 | -3.36 | -8.5% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 3pp) | 57 | 31 | -0.80 | -2.5% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 5pp) | 36 | 19 | -2.62 | -12.1% |
Chronological split with no peeking. Elo settings were tuned on the oldest 60% of matches that had prices (Jan 25, 2026 to Jul 2, 2026). Blend weights were fit on the next 20%. Scores are on the newest 20%, which wasn't used for any fitting. Historical prices are last-trade or mid prices, not executable asks, so P&L adds a 2¢ cost per contract and excludes fees. The market itself never flags a gap against itself, so it has no P&L row: 0 is the bar to beat. Fair price shown for Valorant: Elo-only (labelled). No model picks. Blend did not beat the market out-of-sample with positive simulated p&l; no model picks for this game.
Call of Duty
| Out-of-sample test (41 matches, Jun 14, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026) | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Market (last Polymarket price before start) | 0.2011 | 0.5857 |
| Elo v1 (old model) | 0.2037 | 0.5921 |
| Elo v2 (tuned, MOV, decay, shrink), no market input | 0.2080 | 0.6013 |
| v2 blend (market + Elo, fit on earlier data) | 0.2011 | 0.5859 |
| Simulated $1 contracts on flagged gaps (test window, buying at price + 2¢) | Bets | Won | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1_rule (elo_v1 vs price, 5pp) | 23 | 6 | -0.56 | -8.5% |
| elo_v2 raw vs price, 3pp | 23 | 7 | -0.83 | -10.6% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 2pp) | 15 | 3 | -0.68 | -18.5% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 3pp) | 11 | 1 | -1.64 | -62.1% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 5pp) | 3 | 1 | -0.01 | -0.5% |
Chronological split with no peeking. Elo settings were tuned on the oldest 60% of matches that had prices (Jan 30, 2026 to May 10, 2026). Blend weights were fit on the next 20%. Scores are on the newest 20%, which wasn't used for any fitting. Historical prices are last-trade or mid prices, not executable asks, so P&L adds a 2¢ cost per contract and excludes fees. The market itself never flags a gap against itself, so it has no P&L row: 0 is the bar to beat. The test window is too small to mean much, so read these numbers as anecdotes. Fair price shown for Call of Duty: Elo-only (labelled). No model picks. Test window has only 41 matches (need 100); no model picks for this game.
Rocket League
| Out-of-sample test (13 matches, Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026) | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Market (last Polymarket price before start) | 0.1808 | 0.5379 |
| Elo v1 (old model) | 0.1623 | 0.5030 |
| Elo v2 (tuned, MOV, decay, shrink), no market input | 0.1648 | 0.5093 |
| v2 blend (market + Elo, fit on earlier data) | 0.2067 | 0.6051 |
| Simulated $1 contracts on flagged gaps (test window, buying at price + 2¢) | Bets | Won | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1_rule (elo_v1 vs price, 5pp) | 9 | 6 | +2.00 | +49.8% |
| elo_v2 raw vs price, 3pp | 10 | 5 | +0.69 | +16.1% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 2pp) | 11 | 3 | -0.71 | -19.1% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 3pp) | 10 | 3 | -0.28 | -8.5% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 5pp) | 9 | 3 | +0.10 | +3.5% |
Chronological split with no peeking. Elo settings were tuned on the oldest 60% of matches that had prices (Dec 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2026). Blend weights were fit on the next 20%. Scores are on the newest 20%, which wasn't used for any fitting. Historical prices are last-trade or mid prices, not executable asks, so P&L adds a 2¢ cost per contract and excludes fees. The market itself never flags a gap against itself, so it has no P&L row: 0 is the bar to beat. The test window is too small to mean much, so read these numbers as anecdotes. Fair price shown for Rocket League: Elo-only (labelled). No model picks. Test window has only 13 matches (need 100); no model picks for this game.
Counter-Strike 2
| Out-of-sample test (1248 matches, Sep 8, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026) | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Market (last Polymarket price before start) | 0.2027 | 0.5917 |
| Elo v1 (old model) | 0.2268 | 0.6459 |
| Elo v2 (tuned, MOV, decay, shrink), no market input | 0.2251 | 0.6418 |
| v2 blend (market + Elo, fit on earlier data) | 0.2020 | 0.5899 |
| Simulated $1 contracts on flagged gaps (test window, buying at price + 2¢) | Bets | Won | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1_rule (elo_v1 vs price, 5pp) | 715 | 243 | -36.40 | -13.0% |
| elo_v2 raw vs price, 3pp | 858 | 322 | -31.94 | -9.0% |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 2pp) | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | – |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 3pp) | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | – |
| v2_rule (blend vs price, 5pp) | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | – |
Chronological split with no peeking. Elo settings were tuned on the oldest 60% of matches that had prices (Nov 1, 2025 to Jul 18, 2026). Blend weights were fit on the next 20%. Scores are on the newest 20%, which wasn't used for any fitting. Historical prices are last-trade or mid prices, not executable asks, so P&L adds a 2¢ cost per contract and excludes fees. The market itself never flags a gap against itself, so it has no P&L row: 0 is the bar to beat. Fair price shown for Counter-Strike 2: market-anchored blend. No model picks. Blend did not beat the market out-of-sample with positive simulated p&l; no model picks for this game.